Southeast Asia’s Onshore Wind Market Set for Fourfold Growth by 2030 – Rystad Energy - Utilities Middle East
Published February 28, 2026
Southeast Asia’s Onshore Wind Market Projected to Quadruple by 2030, According to Rystad Energy
According to a recent analysis conducted by Rystad Energy, the onshore wind energy market in Southeast Asia is poised for significant expansion, with projections indicating a fourfold increase in capacity by the year 2030. This growth is expected to be driven by a combination of favorable government policies, technological advancements, and a growing commitment to renewable energy sources across the region.
As of 2023, the installed onshore wind capacity in Southeast Asia stands at approximately 5.8 gigawatts (GW). Rystad Energy forecasts that this figure will surge to around 23 GW by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20%. This expansion is expected to be fueled by investments in new projects, as well as the completion of existing developments that are currently in the pipeline.
The report highlights that countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines are likely to lead this growth, with Vietnam alone anticipated to account for nearly 60% of the total onshore wind capacity in the region by 2030. The Vietnamese government has set ambitious renewable energy targets, aiming for 10.7 GW of wind capacity by 2030, a goal that Rystad Energy believes is achievable given the current pace of development.
In Thailand, the onshore wind capacity is expected to reach approximately 5.7 GW by 2030, supported by a range of government incentives and a growing focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The Thai government has implemented a number of policies aimed at promoting renewable energy, including feed-in tariffs and power purchase agreements, which are expected to attract further investment into the sector.
The Philippines is also set to experience significant growth in its onshore wind capacity, with projections indicating an increase to 3.9 GW by 2030. The government has been actively promoting renewable energy as a means to diversify its energy mix and enhance energy security. Recent policy initiatives aimed at streamlining the permitting process for renewable energy projects are expected to facilitate the rapid development of onshore wind farms in the country.
Rystad Energy's analysis underscores the importance of regional collaboration in achieving these ambitious targets. The report notes that countries in Southeast Asia can benefit from sharing best practices, technologies, and investment strategies to accelerate the growth of the onshore wind market. Collaborative efforts, such as joint ventures and cross-border projects, could enhance the region's overall capacity and efficiency in harnessing wind energy.
In addition to government initiatives, technological advancements are playing a crucial role in the growth of the onshore wind market in Southeast Asia. The report highlights that improvements in turbine efficiency and the development of larger, more powerful turbines are enabling developers to generate more energy at lower costs. As a result, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) from onshore wind projects is expected to continue to decline, making wind energy an increasingly competitive option for power generation.
Furthermore, the growing awareness of climate change and the need for sustainable energy solutions are prompting both public and private sectors to invest more heavily in renewable energy projects. The transition towards cleaner energy sources is not only seen as a way to mitigate climate change but also as a means to create jobs and stimulate economic growth across the region.
Despite the positive outlook for the onshore wind market in Southeast Asia, challenges remain. The report identifies several barriers that could hinder the growth of the sector, including regulatory uncertainties, land acquisition issues, and the need for improved grid infrastructure to support the integration of renewable energy sources. Addressing these challenges will be crucial for unlocking the full potential of onshore wind energy in the region.
In conclusion, Rystad Energy's analysis reveals a promising future for the onshore wind market in Southeast Asia, with the potential for a fourfold increase in capacity by 2030. This growth is expected to be driven by supportive government policies, technological advancements, and a growing commitment to renewable energy. However, addressing the existing challenges will be essential to ensure that the region can fully capitalize on its wind energy resources and contribute to global efforts in combating climate change.
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